Moderate AI Risk

    Will AI Replace Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas?

    Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas face a 40.9% AI exposure score with a 13% displacement probability. Core tasks in problem Sensitivity, critical Thinking, and speaking are increasingly automatable, though hearing Sensitivity and auditory Attention provide partial protection. Physical presence requirements and high social interaction provide partial protection.

    O*NET Code: 47-5011.00 · Data from O*NET & BLS · Updated March 2026
    AI Exposure Score
    40.9
    out of 100
    Displacement Prob.
    13%
    low displacement
    Augmentation
    13%
    AI assists, not replaces
    Confidence
    52%
    analysis confidence
    AI Exposure ScoreA 0–100 scale measuring the overall vulnerability of this role's required skills, knowledge, and abilities.
    Displacement Prob.The estimated likelihood that AI could fully automate and replace the core functions of this occupation.
    AugmentationThe probability that AI will serve as a supportive tool to enhance the worker's productivity rather than replace them.
    ConfidenceThe statistical reliability of these predictions, based on how closely the role's skills map to direct AI benchmarks.
    0 — Safe25 — Low50 — Moderate75 — High100 — Critical

    This occupation scores below the national average of 48/100 by 7.1 points. The primary risk comes from AI's strong performance in complex problem solving, representing core functions of this role. However, physical presence and high social interaction requirements provide meaningful protection.

    Skill-Level Analysis

    Which skills are most at risk?

    Each skill in this occupation analyzed against current AI benchmarks. Higher scores = higher AI exposure.

    Operations Monitoring
    Watching gauges, dials, or other indicators to make sure a machine is working properly.
    70.6
    Medium displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence + AA Coding (data proxy)
    Critical Thinking
    Using logic and reasoning to identify the strengths and weaknesses of alternative solutions, conclusions, or approaches to problems.
    62.5
    High displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence Index
    Speaking
    Talking to others to convey information effectively.
    59.5
    High displacement
    Benchmark: HLE
    Active Listening
    Giving full attention to what other people are saying, taking time to understand the points being made, asking questions as appropriate, and not interrupting at inappropriate times.
    56.3
    High displacement
    Benchmark: HLE
    Complex Problem Solving
    Identifying complex problems and reviewing related information to develop and evaluate options and implement solutions.
    56.3
    High displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence Index
    Troubleshooting
    Determining causes of operating errors and deciding what to do about it.
    56.3
    High displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence Index
    Monitoring
    Monitoring/Assessing performance of yourself, other individuals, or organizations to make improvements or take corrective action.
    56
    Medium displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence + AA Coding (data proxy)
    Quality Control Analysis
    Conducting tests and inspections of products, services, or processes to evaluate quality or performance.
    53
    Medium displacement
    Benchmark: AA Intelligence + AA Coding (data proxy)
    Multilimb Coordination
    The ability to coordinate two or more limbs (for example, two arms, two legs, or one leg and one arm) while sitting, standing, or lying down. It does not involve performing the activities while the whole body is in motion.
    11
    Physical barrier
    Benchmark: Estimated
    Operation and Control
    Controlling operations of equipment or systems.
    10.6
    Physical barrier
    Benchmark: Estimated
    Control Precision
    The ability to quickly and repeatedly adjust the controls of a machine or a vehicle to exact positions.
    10.6
    Physical barrier
    Benchmark: Estimated
    Arm-Hand Steadiness
    The ability to keep your hand and arm steady while moving your arm or while holding your arm and hand in one position.
    10.1
    Physical barrier
    Benchmark: Estimated
    Repairing
    Repairing machines or systems using the needed tools.
    8.8
    Physical barrier
    Benchmark: Estimated
    What This Means

    The bottom line for Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas

    What's most at risk

    The role's most exposed skills, specifically Problem Sensitivity, Critical Thinking, Speaking, reach up to 65.8/100 on AI exposure. AI systems already match or exceed human performance on AA Intelligence Index, directly targeting these core competencies.

    What provides partial protection

    This role requires physical presence and involves high social interaction, such as coordinating with teams, building client trust, and navigating interpersonal dynamics in real time. These human-centric demands are significantly harder to automate and will persist even as the technical components of the role shift to AI.

    Skills that remain safe

    Hearing Sensitivity (7.7/100), Auditory Attention (7.7/100), Finger Dexterity (8.3/100) are protected by physical or social barriers AI cannot replicate. Perceptual Speed and Visualization also sit in the augmentation zone. Workers who lean into these human-centric capabilities will be well positioned as higher-exposure tasks shift to AI.

    How this compares

    At 40.9/100, Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas rank below the national average of 48/100. Among the lower-risk occupations in this cluster, safer than Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators (28.1/100). The role sits among the middle third least AI-exposed occupations.

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    Lower-Risk Alternatives

    Careers that use similar skills with less AI risk

    Based on skill overlap analysis — these occupations share core competencies with Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas but have significantly lower automation exposure.

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    FAQ

    Common questions about Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas and AI

    Will AI completely replace this occupation?

    Very unlikely. The 13% displacement probability is well below the national average. This role is relatively insulated, as AI is more useful as a productivity multiplier here than as a replacement for the core human work.

    When will AI start affecting this job?

    Gradually, over the next 3–7 years. The tools exist but aren't yet uniformly adopted at scale. Early movers who reskill now will have a significant head start over those who wait for disruption to arrive at their specific workplace.

    What skills should I develop to stay relevant?

    Your strongest assets are Hearing Sensitivity and Auditory Attention, representing the lowest-exposure capabilities in this profile. Double down on them. Beyond that, invest in AI tool fluency: workers who know how to direct, verify, and extend AI outputs will capture the productivity upside rather than compete against it.

    What careers can I switch to with my current skills?

    Your skills transfer well to roles like Roustabouts, Oil and Gas (9.3/100 AI risk, 100% skill overlap), Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators (19.7/100 AI risk, 100% skill overlap), and Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining (24.1/100 AI risk, 100% skill overlap). PathScorer can analyse your full profile and surface even more personalised matches. Try it free here.

    How is this AI risk score calculated?

    We analyse each occupation's O*NET skill profile, covering 35+ dimensions across knowledge areas, skills, and abilities, and benchmark each against current AI capabilities (MMLU-Pro for language comprehension, τ-bench v2 for task completion, MATH-500 for mathematical reasoning, LiveCodeBench for coding, and others). Each dimension is weighted by its O*NET importance score for the occupation. Physical presence requirements and social interaction levels from O*NET work context data are also factored in. Scores are updated weekly as new AI benchmarks are published. See the full methodology →

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    Methodology: AI exposure scores are calculated by analyzing O*NET occupational skill profiles against current AI capability benchmarks. Skill importance and level data from O*NET 28.1. Employment and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). AI benchmarks include MMLU-Pro (language comprehension), τ-bench v2 (task completion), SWE-bench (code generation), and others. Physical presence and social interaction factors are derived from O*NET work context data. Scores are updated quarterly as new AI benchmarks are published. See full methodology →
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